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Obama administration beginning to realize the it has to think differently about methane after Paris Lots of discussion in Paris about temperature target needs to be well below 2 o C anything above 1.5 o C dangerous Methane and black carbon critical to slowing global warming to reach COP21 target Target cannot be reached through CO2 reductions alone CO2 emissions today will influence climate for hundreds of years because of lags in climate system, reducing emissions now will have little influence during next 40 years In contrast, methane persists in atmosphere for only 12 years modest long-term influence, unless global warming leads to tipping points in climate system Reducing methane emissions immediately slows global warming Possible tipping points to push Earth into new climate system: Melting of Arctic Ocean ice (with reduced albedo) Change in ocean conveyor-belt circulation More thunderstorms in Arctic, leading to more fires Melting of permafrost and methane hydrates Great conveyor belt could slowing caused by melting of Arctic ice and Greenland ice sheet, making North Atlantic less salty Thunderstorms used to be extremely rare in Arctic 20-fold increase in lightning strikes during past decade and tundra has become significantly drier in summer High potential for massive emissions of ancient methane due to thawing permafrost and release of frozen methane (methane clathrates) James Hansen suggests that melting of methane clathrates in ocean could take off above 1.8 o C CO2 emissions stable for past few years, yet CO2 concentration in atmosphere rose at fastest rate ever in 2015 and reached record high in Feb

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To view a copy of this licence, visit About this article Cite this article Zheng, Z., Zong, Y., Ma, Y